OXFORD SCENARIO PLANNING
The intention of the „Oxford scenario planning approach” is to be collaborative. The aim is to get teams, groups, individuals at different levels and different functions within an organization to analyze a range of factors that contribute to the future. And during the process their collective understanding is reframed. The scenario planning is defined from the plausibility stance, rather than normative.
Normative stance conceives what the future should look like. Plausibility takes under consideration what is apparently reasonable and valid, it recognizes that the part of uncertainty is unpredictable. Additionally by exploring the sources of the turbulence and uncertainty in an active way, the goal is to generate new understandings and insights to support organizations/leaders in re-perceiving their occurrences in the iterative and interactive way.
The concept of scenario planning has cognitive determinants, since it focuses on conceptualizing the new propositions: the aim is to generate the new concept by reframing the collective understanding of the present. The scenario planning as the process which builds a cross-sectoral network of trusting relationships called by Robert Putnam social capital. The assumption of social capital is that investing in social relations (via using Emotional and Social Intelligence apart from Cognitive Intelligence) creates positive returns, empowering individuals and social groups to achieve outcomes they could not otherwise achieve. The generated social capital enables the access to the new information, creates appreciation of a strategic situation which is commonly shared. Therefore the process in the scenario planning is driven by the collective that develops an outcome out of the mutual consensus which is not imposed and prescriptive.
Consequently the purpose is to collectively generate the solution in a progressive way, since it assumes the process to be repeated, rethought collectively in order to gain the new knowledge that serves the Leader or the organization.